Academy award winners are determined by vote of Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences members, all of whom are movie industry people: actors, writers, directors, cinematographers, and so on. Not being in that crowd, I have no idea how the more than six thousand members will vote for the nominated films. Apparently they are predominately white (93%) male (76%) members of the boomer generation (average age 63), thus not particularly representative of the general movie going public. On the other hand, I am a white 64 year old male, so perhaps I have more insight than you might think.
It’s annually asserted that pictures
get nominated and get Oscars based on money, and specifically, based on
popularity, as measured by box office receipts. While that may be a factor, it
would not appear to be determinative.
This year the nine nominees for Best Picture have a pretty wide
disparity in box office, ranging from $269 million down to just $17 million.
American Hustle - $144.7 million
The Wolf of Wall Street - $113 million
Captain Phillips - $106.9 million
12 Years A Slave - $49.3 million
Philomena - $33.4 million
Dallas Buyers Club - $24.8 million
Her - $24.1 million
Nebraska - $16.7 million)
Gravity, the top grossing contender, is only number 6 on the
list of 2013’s biggest money making movies, behind The Hunger Games:
Catching Fire ($424 million), Iron Man 3 ($409 million), Frozen,
Despicable Me 2, and Man of Steel; and just ahead of Monsters
University, The Desolation of Smaug, Fast and Furious 6 and Oz
The Great and Powerful. American Hustle is number 18, The Wolf of
Wall Street is at number 29, and Nebraska brings up the rear, financially
speaking, in 121st place.
While some of these pictures are still selling tickets, and licensing
deals from DVDs, streaming rights, etc are still to come, it’s hard to make the
case that it’s all about the money.
Odds makers tell us that the favorites as Gravity, 12
Years A Slave and American Hustle, with Wolf of Wall Street
and Dallas Buyers Club as dark horses. Again, all over the map.
My personal opinion about who should win has nothing to do with
money, nor with Hollywood insider stuff like who’s nice, who’s generous, who’s
powerful, who’s hot, etc. Rather, I try
to take the measure of the whole package:
the conception (what were they trying to do, and how well did they do
it?), the acting, the screenplay and story, the cinematography, the production
values, and, just as important as the rest, the most subjective piece, the
emotional effect and/or intellectual impact the film had on me.
So here are my picks (not predictions):
In my view, the best of the best was American Hustle.
This motion picture had it all: a great story, amazing acting by a fabulous
ensemble, effective photography, humor, tension, and pretty much perfect
directing. It’s a movie lover’s movie. [
See my full review.]
The other top contenders, in my book, are Dallas Buyers Club,
Her and 12 Years A Slave.
DBC is distinguished by the transcendent performances of
Mathew McConaughey and Jared Leto. The story was interesting and provocative,
but marred by a cartoonish portrayal of Establishment villainy, and the
unconvincing character of Eve, the good nurse (Jennifer Garner). [ See my full review.]
Her, an audacious movie about a love affair between a
person and an operating system, slyly takes us from far-fetched concept to
plausible romantic drama without skipping a beat, thanks to writer/director
Spike Jonze, art director, David Stein, and the cast. Joaquin Phoenix was wonderful
playing against type. Too bad “voice” actors can’t qualify as supporting
actors, because Scarlett Johansson deserves an Oscar for her Samantha character. [ See
my full review.]
12 Years A Slave, based on the mid 19th
century slave narrative by the same name, was a lovely movie, about the horrors
of black slavery in the American South. It was honest and affecting, if hard to
watch at times, with terrific acting acros s the board. The cinematography was
creative and evocative, and Steve McQueen’s direction was, umm, direct. In my
handicapping system, however, this picture lost a few points for being somewhat
predictable (maybe because I read the book several years ago?) and a little too
ham-handed in the tear-jerking department.
I enjoyed Gravity as a thrill ride, for it’s amazing, awe
inspiring vision of Space and for it’s great special effects. Money well spent
there. The story made little sense, and the acting of Sandra Bullock was less
than remarkable. This was one of those pictures where the apparent ambition of
the filmmakers was not fulfilled, and it showed. [ See my full review.]
The Wolf of Wall Street was a disappointment to me,
notwithstanding a bravura performance by star Leonardo diCaprio. He and
director Martin Scorsese were aiming high with this movie, their ambition to
explore, through the excesses of sleazeball protagonist Jordan Belfort,
something about the American character, and they missed. Instead, we got a
crude, churlish exploitation film, albeit with the highest production
values. [See my full review.]
Philomena was a lovely little movie. Steve Coogan was great as
the journalst who took an old woman on a journey into the past, uncovering an
interesting personal mystery. Judi Dench is always good, and she was good as
Philomena Lee here, but this was not her best work . Worth seeing, but not best
picture of the year. [See my full review.]
Nebraska was another one that I really did not care for. I
felt that it was far less than it was cracked up to be. A very bleak,
ill-fitting view of America and Americans. A lot of my friends disagree with me
about the quality of Nebraska. Few, I imagine, would claim it was the best
picture of the year. [See my
full review.]
Best Actor In a Leading Role. Here are
our choices:
Christian Bale (American Hustle
)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska
)
Leonardo diCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street
)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave
)
Matthew
McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club
)
I
didn’t care for Bruce Dern’s performance as a shuffling, ill tempered, unhappy
old guy. The other performances were all very good. The two standouts in this
group were diCaprio’s larger than life performance as Jordan Belfort, and
McConaughey’s as Ron Woodroof. Both of these portraits were of real life
people, and both of the characters were not particularly likeable guys.
McConaughey deserves to win, as his was far
and away the most nuanced, believable and, ultimately, touching performance in
this group (and probably of any lead actor last year).
Best Actress In a Leading Role. Here are
our choices:
Amy Adams (American Hustle
)
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine
)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity
)
Judi Dench (Philomena
)
Meryl
Streep (August: Osage County
)
I did not get to August: Osage County, and can’t judge Ms. Streep, but from what I hear, I’m going to assume her performance is not the best. That honor should go to Cate Blanchett. Her Jasmine was an amazing and riveting portrait of a disintegrating personality, a hard to take, and yet ultimately sympathetic wreck, a modern day Blanche duBlois. I had some quibbles with Blue Jasmine, but not with Cate.
I
was not impressed with Bullock, and would be disappointed if she gets the Oscar
in this category. I liked Dame Judi and loved Adams in American Hustle. But
it’s really no contest, in my book.
Best Actor in a Supporting
Role. The nominees are
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips
)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle
)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave
)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street
)
Jared
Leto (Dallas Buyers Club
)
And
the winner is Jared Leto, without a doubt. He gave a WOW performance, not by
doing an over-the-top thing, but by
becoming the transvestite Rayon. Leto was so absolutely convincing, and
Rayon’s personality so engaging and essential, he absolutely made Dallas
Buyer’s Club work. That’s what a great supporting performance is supposed
to do, right?
2nd
place, in my book would probably be a tie between Cooper, really earnest and
quite funny as the ambitious federal agent in AH, and Fassbender, who gave us
one of the most nuanced evil slave owners I have ever seen. Abdi was quite convincing
as a Somali pirate, but of course he is Somali, and we haven’t seen him in any
other role, so he should be happy just getting nominated. Jonah Hill is growing
out of his cute, chubby neophyte roles, and that’s a good thing, but really? He
does not belong in this class for this movie. I do wish Jeremy Renner had been
nominated in this category for his magnificent Mayor Carmine Polito, in AH.
But
Leto would still win.
Best Actress in a
Supporting Role.
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine
)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle
)
Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave
)
Jullia Roberts (August: Osage County
)
June
Squibb (Nebraska
)
I’m
sorry folks, no contest: it’s actress of the year Jennifer Lawrence playing
Christian Bale’s wife, Rosalyn Rosenfeld, in American Hustle. She
dominated every scene she was in, not by upstaging the other actors, but with
her verve, style, timing and looks. Really, just unbelievable. I loved that
movie and ALL the actors, but of the moments that come to mind most frequently,
almost all of them are of Lawrence. Like when she suddenly kisses Amy Adams in
the ladies room, or when she blames her husband for the fact that she almost burned the house down, or when
she casually waltzes up to a scary group of mafia guys, while the rest of her
party hangs back in fear, or …, well you
get the idea. That she also starred in the biggest grossing film of the year
won’t hurt her chances, either.
I
didn’t see Roberts in Osage County, but I hear she was good. Hawkins was fine
in Blue Jasmine, and Nyong’o made a great debut in 12 Years A Slave.
Again, mine is a minority opinion regarding June Squibb’s acting in Nebraska,
but I wasn’t impressed.
Best Director: David O Russell for American Hustle
(He’s also the writer.) I’ve already gushed enough about his movie.
The
other nominees are:
Martin
Scorsese for Wolf of Wall Street – Sorry Martin, not your best work.
Alexander
Payne for Nebraska – You know what I think of that one
Steve
McQueen for 12 Years a Slave – I wouldn’t be surprised or offended if he
gets the statue.
Alfonso
Cuaron for Gravity – Masterful job with the special effects and all, and
quite a thrill ride, but I like to award directors for work with actors, not
just computer artist and engineers.
Ok
folks, that’s a wrap! See you at the
Oscars.
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