
Academy award winners are determined by vote of Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences members, all of whom are movie industry people: actors, writers, directors, cinematographers, and so on. Not being in that crowd, I have no idea how the more than six thousand members will vote for the nominated films. Apparently they are predominately white (93%) male (76%) members of the boomer generation (average age 63), thus not particularly representative of the general movie going public. On the other hand, I am a white 64 year old male, so perhaps I have more insight than you might think.
It’s annually asserted that pictures
get nominated and get Oscars based on money, and specifically, based on
popularity, as measured by box office receipts. While that may be a factor, it
would not appear to be determinative.
This year the nine nominees for Best Picture have a pretty wide
disparity in box office, ranging from $269 million down to just $17 million.
American Hustle - $144.7 million
The Wolf of Wall Street - $113 million
Captain Phillips - $106.9 million
12 Years A Slave - $49.3 million
Philomena - $33.4 million
Dallas Buyers Club - $24.8 million
Her - $24.1 million
Nebraska - $16.7 million)

Odds makers tell us that the favorites as Gravity, 12
Years A Slave and American Hustle, with Wolf of Wall Street
and Dallas Buyers Club as dark horses. Again, all over the map.
My personal opinion about who should win has nothing to do with
money, nor with Hollywood insider stuff like who’s nice, who’s generous, who’s
powerful, who’s hot, etc. Rather, I try
to take the measure of the whole package:
the conception (what were they trying to do, and how well did they do
it?), the acting, the screenplay and story, the cinematography, the production
values, and, just as important as the rest, the most subjective piece, the
emotional effect and/or intellectual impact the film had on me.
So here are my picks (not predictions):
In my view, the best of the best was American Hustle.
This motion picture had it all: a great story, amazing acting by a fabulous
ensemble, effective photography, humor, tension, and pretty much perfect
directing. It’s a movie lover’s movie. [
See my full review.]
The other top contenders, in my book, are Dallas Buyers Club,
Her and 12 Years A Slave.



I enjoyed Gravity as a thrill ride, for it’s amazing, awe
inspiring vision of Space and for it’s great special effects. Money well spent
there. The story made little sense, and the acting of Sandra Bullock was less
than remarkable. This was one of those pictures where the apparent ambition of
the filmmakers was not fulfilled, and it showed. [ See my full review.]



Best Actor In a Leading Role. Here are
our choices:
Christian Bale (American Hustle
)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska
)
Leonardo diCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street
)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave
)
Matthew
McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club
)

McConaughey deserves to win, as his was far
and away the most nuanced, believable and, ultimately, touching performance in
this group (and probably of any lead actor last year).
Best Actress In a Leading Role. Here are
our choices:
Amy Adams (American Hustle
)
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine
)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity
)
Judi Dench (Philomena
)
Meryl
Streep (August: Osage County
)

I did not get to August: Osage County, and can’t judge Ms. Streep, but from what I hear, I’m going to assume her performance is not the best. That honor should go to Cate Blanchett. Her Jasmine was an amazing and riveting portrait of a disintegrating personality, a hard to take, and yet ultimately sympathetic wreck, a modern day Blanche duBlois. I had some quibbles with Blue Jasmine, but not with Cate.
I
was not impressed with Bullock, and would be disappointed if she gets the Oscar
in this category. I liked Dame Judi and loved Adams in American Hustle. But
it’s really no contest, in my book.
Best Actor in a Supporting
Role. The nominees are
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips
)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle
)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave
)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street
)
Jared
Leto (Dallas Buyers Club
)

2nd
place, in my book would probably be a tie between Cooper, really earnest and
quite funny as the ambitious federal agent in AH, and Fassbender, who gave us
one of the most nuanced evil slave owners I have ever seen. Abdi was quite convincing
as a Somali pirate, but of course he is Somali, and we haven’t seen him in any
other role, so he should be happy just getting nominated. Jonah Hill is growing
out of his cute, chubby neophyte roles, and that’s a good thing, but really? He
does not belong in this class for this movie. I do wish Jeremy Renner had been
nominated in this category for his magnificent Mayor Carmine Polito, in AH.
But
Leto would still win.
Best Actress in a
Supporting Role.
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine
)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle
)
Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave
)
Jullia Roberts (August: Osage County
)
June
Squibb (Nebraska
)

I
didn’t see Roberts in Osage County, but I hear she was good. Hawkins was fine
in Blue Jasmine, and Nyong’o made a great debut in 12 Years A Slave.
Again, mine is a minority opinion regarding June Squibb’s acting in Nebraska,
but I wasn’t impressed.
Best Director: David O Russell for American Hustle
(He’s also the writer.) I’ve already gushed enough about his movie.
The
other nominees are:
Martin
Scorsese for Wolf of Wall Street – Sorry Martin, not your best work.
Alexander
Payne for Nebraska – You know what I think of that one
Steve
McQueen for 12 Years a Slave – I wouldn’t be surprised or offended if he
gets the statue.
Alfonso
Cuaron for Gravity – Masterful job with the special effects and all, and
quite a thrill ride, but I like to award directors for work with actors, not
just computer artist and engineers.
Ok
folks, that’s a wrap! See you at the
Oscars.
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